In this tutorial, I am going to show you** 3** easy methods to calculate probability exceedance in excel. You can use these methods even in large datasets to find out the exceedance value for a certain period. Throughout this tutorial, you will also learn some important excel tools and techniques which will be very useful in any excel related task.

**Table of Contents**hide

## Download Practice Workbook

You can download the practice workbook from here.

## What Is Probability of Exceedance?

The probability of exceedance, as the name suggests, gives the indication of how likely a certain value is to exceed the regular limits. We can estimate this probability using the following formula:

**Probability of Exceedance** = **1- ( 1-p)^n**

Where,

**pÂ = probability in the current period**

**n = the time period to consider**

## 3 Easy Methods to Calculate the Probability of Exceedance in Excel

We have taken a concise dataset to explain the steps clearly. The dataset has approximately **5 **rows and **3 **columns. For all the datasets, we have **3 **unique input values which are **p**,** n, and 1-p**. Although we may vary the number of columns later on if that is needed.

### 1. Calculating Exceedance by Formula

In this first method, we will use simple **excel** operators to calculate the exceedance probability value. Follow the steps below to do this.

**Steps:**

- First, go to cell
**C6**and enter the following formula:

`=1-C4`

- Next, press
**Enter**. - Furthermore, enter the below formula in cell
**C7**:

`=(1-C4)^C5`

- Again, press the
**Enter**key to confirm. - Then, put this formula inside cell
**C8**:

`=1-C7`

- Finally, press
**Enter**for the last time and this should calculate the probability exceedance.

**Read More: ****How to Calculate Probability in Excel (3 Practical Examples)**

### 2. Using POWER Function

**The POWER function** in excel is an alternate option to the **^** operator. It raises a number to some power and returns the value. Let us see how we can use this function to calculate the probability of exceedance.

**Steps:**

- To begin with, double-click on cell
**C7**and enter the below formula:

`=POWER(C6,C5)`

- Next, press the
**Enter**key and you should get a value of**25**. - Now, double-click on cell
**C8**and insert the formula below as before:

`=1-C7`

- Lastly, press the
**Enter**key and consequently, this will find the probability value inside cell**C8**.

**Read More: ****Use Normal Probability Distribution in Excel (3 Cases)**

**Similar Readings**

**How to Calculate Cumulative Probability in Excel (with Easy Steps)****How to Find Standard Deviation of Probability Distribution in Excel****Apply Weighted Probability in Excel (3 Useful Methods)****How to Calculate Binomial Probability in Excel (with Easy Steps)**

### 3. Applying VBA Code

If you want to calculate the probability of exceedance in excel using just one click, then you should use the **VBA **feature. Follow the steps below to apply this.

**Steps:**

- For this method, go to the
**Developer**tab and select**Visual Basic**.

- Now, select
**Insert**in the**VBA**window and click on**Module**.

- Next, type in the formula below in the new window:

```
Public Sub Exceedance()
Range("C6").Value = 1 - Range("C4")
Range("C7").Value = Application.WorksheetFunction.Power(Range("C6"), Range("C5"))
Range("C8").Value = 1 - Range("C7")
End Sub
```

- Then, open the macro from the
**Developer**tab by clicking on**Macros**.

- After that, in the
**Macro**window, select the**Exceedance**macro and click**Run**.

- As a result, the
**VBA**code will calculate the probability exceedance value including all the other parameters.

**Read More: ****Exponential Probability Distribution in Excel (2 Suitable Examples)**

## How to Calculate Probability in Excel with Mean and Standard Deviation

Oftentimes, we need the values of** mean and standard deviation to calculate probability in excel**. In this method, we will see how we can achieve this using** the NORMDIST function**.

**Steps:**

- To begin this, double-click on cell
**C10**and insert the formula below:

`=NORMDIST(66.67,C8,C9, TRUE)`

- Next, press the
**Enter**key and consequently, this will find the probability value inside cell**C10**.

## How to Calculate Conditional Probability in Excel

In the following steps, we shall see how to find the conditional probability from a specific dataset in excel.

**Steps:**

- To start this method, navigate to cell
**D8**and type in the following formula:

`=C5/C7`

- Then, press
**Enter**to confirm the formula. - Now, type in the below formula in cell
**D9**:

`=D5/D7`

- Finally, press
**Enter**and immediately this will evaluate the conditional probability values.

## Things to Remember

- Use the shortcut
**Alt+F11**to open the**VBA**window as an alternative. - Make sure to rename the sheet in the
**VBA**method as**VBA**. - Also, you can press
**Alt+F8**to open the**Macro**window to run it.

## Conclusion

I hope that you were able to apply the methods that I showed in this tutorial on how to calculate probability exceedance in excel. As you can see, there are quite a few ways to achieve this. So wisely choose the method that suits your situation best. If you get stuck in any of the steps, I recommend going through them a few times to clear up any confusion. Lastly, to learn more **excel** techniques, follow our **ExcelDemy** website. If you have any queries, please let me know in the comments.