How to Make a Probability Tree Diagram in Excel (3 Easy Methods)

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A diagram that is used to provide a visual depiction of the possibilities and outcomes of an event is called a probability tree diagram. Using Microsoft Excel, we can easily do such work. In this article, we are going to demonstrate 3 handy ways to make a probability tree diagram in Excel. If you are also curious about it, download our practice workbook and follow us.


Overview of Probability Tree

A diagram that is used to provide a visual depiction of the possibilities and outcomes of an event is called a probability tree diagram. The nodes and branches make up the two components of the tree diagram. An event is represented by a node. A branch is a visual representation of the relationship between an event and its result.

For example, we can consider a coin that has two sides: a head and a tail. If we toss the coin, it can either come head or tail. The calculated probability of getting anyone will be 0.5 or 50%. Now, if we show this scenario in the probability diagram tree, that will be like the image shown below:

Sample probability tree diagram


How to Make a Probability Tree Diagram in Excel: 3 Easy Ways

To demonstrate the approaches, we take a coin and toss it twice. As a result, we get the four combinations of the events that can occur during the toss. We show the possible events in the range of cells C5:D6.

📚 Note:

All the operations of this article are accomplished by using Microsoft Office 365 application.


1. Using SmartArt Option to Create a Probability Tree Diagram

In this method, we are going to use the SmartArt option to make a probability tree diagram in Excel. The steps of this process are given below:

📌 Steps:

  • First of all, go to the Insert tab.
  • Now, click on the drop-down arrow of the Illustration and choose the SmartArt option.

Launching SmartArt Chart to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

  • As a result, a small dialog box called Choose a SmartArt Graphic will appear.
  • Then, from the Hierarchy tab, choose a chat according to your desire. We chose the Horizontal Organization Chart.
  • Finally, click OK.

Choosing Horizontal Organization Chart to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

  • The chart will appear on the spreadsheet.

Our desired SmartArt on Excel sheet

  • Here, when we toss the coin first time, we will get either head or tail. So, format the chart as two possible events that can come from an event.

  • After that, from each event, we will get two more events.
  • To insert them, click on the right arrow on the right side of the chart.
  • As a result, a small side window will appear.

  • Now, press Enter to add another point after H or head.
  • Then, right-click on the point and select the Demote option to create the section from the second toss.

Creating sub section to make a probability tree diagram

  • Afterward, write down the possible events in those boxes.

  • Similarly, create another secondary section for the T or tail.

Make a Probability Tree Diagram for Every Possible Case

  • At last, format the diagram according to your desire.
  • Our probability tree is ready.

Using SmartArt Option from Insert Tab to Create a Probability Tree

Thus, we can say that our procedure works perfectly, and we are able to make a probability tree diagram in Excel.

Read More: Probability Formula for Lottery in Excel


2. Make a Probability Tree Diagram Utilizing the Shapes Option from Insert Tab

In this process, we will use the Shapes to make a probability tree diagram in Excel. The procedure of this process is described below step-by-step:

📌 Steps:

  • First, in the Insert tab, click on the drop-down arrow of the Illustration > Shapes option.
  • Then, click on a shape according to your desire. Here, we choose the Oval shape.

Choosing Oval Shape to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

  • You will notice that your mouse cursor look will change.
  • Now, click on the empty place and drag the mouse to get the shape.
  • Then, resize the shape according to your need.

  • We know that in the first toss, we can get two identical events, and after the second toss, the number of events will go to four.
  • So, press ‘Ctrl+D’ six times to create a similar type of oval 6 times. These ovals are the nodes of the probability tree diagram.

Creating 6 duplicate shapes to make a probability tree diagram

  • After that, rearrange them into 1, 2, and 4 in order and write down the following events.

All Possible Situation in the Probability Tree Diagram

  • Now, we have to insert the branch. For that, again, go to the Insert tab.
  • Then, click on the drop-down arrow of the Illustration > Shapes option and choose the Line Arrow shape.

Inserting Line Arrow in the Probability Tree Diagram as Branch

  • Insert the Line Arrow shape as we insert the Oval shape.

Inserting Branch in the Diagram

  • At last, place the arrow to make a relation among the nodes like in the image shown below.

  • Finally, format them according to your desire. Moreover, select all the shapes and click on the drop-down arrow of the Group > Group option from the Arrange group, located in the Shape Format tab, to stop their accidental movement.

Grouping All Elements to Stop Further Change in a Probability Tree Diagram

  • Our probability tree diagram is ready.

Make a Probability Tree Utilizing the Shapes Option from Insert Tab

Hence, we can say that our approach works effectively, and we are able to make a probability tree diagram in Excel.


3. Applying the Text Box Feature to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

In the last approach, we are going to use the Text Box of Excel to make a probability tree diagram in Excel. The steps of this procedure are given as follows:

📌 Steps:

  • At first, in the Insert tab, click on the drop-down arrow of the Text command and choose the Text Box option.

Inserting a text Box to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

  • You will see that your mouse cursor look will change.
  • After that, click on the empty place and drag the mouse to get the text box.
  • The box will appear on the sheet.

  • We know that after the first toss, we will get two identical events, and after the second toss, the number of events will go to four.
  • Thus, press ‘Ctrl+D’ six times to make a similar type of text box 6 times. Here, these text boxes are the nodes of the probability tree diagram.

Creating 6 duplicate text box in the probability tree diagram

  • Now, rearrange them into 1, 2, and 4 in order and write down the following events.

Write down all possible events that can occur in coin toss

  • Next, we have to insert the branch. To insert them, again, go to the Insert tab.
  • Then, click on the drop-down arrow of the Illustration > Shapes option and choose the Line Arrow shape.

Adding Line Arrow Shape to Show the Relationship in the Tree Diagram

  • Insert the Line Arrow shape as we insert the Text Box.

  • In the end, place the arrow to make a relation among the nodes like in the image shown below.

Applying the Text Box Feature to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

  • Afterward, format them according to your desire.
  • In addition, select all the shapes and click on the drop-down arrow of the Group > Group option from the Arrange group, located in the Shape Format tab, to stop their accidental movement.

Grouping All Text Box to Stop Further Change in a Probability Tree Diagram

  • Our probability tree diagram is ready.

Applying the Text Box Feature to Make a Probability Tree Diagram

Finally, we can say that our method works successfully, and we are able to make a probability tree diagram in Excel.


Download Practice Workbook

Download this practice workbook for practice while you are reading this article.


Conclusion

That’s the end of this article. I hope that this article will be helpful for you and you will be able to make a probability tree diagram in Excel. Please share any further queries or recommendations with us in the comments section below if you have any further questions or recommendations.


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Soumik Dutta
Soumik Dutta

Soumik Dutta, having earned a BSc in Naval Architecture & Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, plays a key role as an Excel & VBA Content Developer at ExcelDemy. Driven by a profound passion for research and innovation, he actively immerses himself in Excel. In his role, Soumik not only skillfully addresses complex challenges but also demonstrates enthusiasm and expertise in gracefully navigating tough situations, underscoring his unwavering commitment to consistently deliver exceptional, high-quality content that... Read Full Bio

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